The dong/US dollar exchange rate will fluctuate between 1-1.5 percent in 2018, according to the forecast of the National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC). However, with the changes of international and domestic financial markets, many experts forecast that the US dollar price increase in Vietnam can be higher, i.e. 1-3 percent.
Nguyen Tri Hieu, finance and banking expert, said the U.S Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue raising interest rates. The decline of the US stock market and the impact from CPTPP will cause demand for imported goods into Vietnam to surge, leading to increased demand for domestic foreign currency.
“Though remittances to Vietnam recovered strongly in 2017 after a year of decline (reaching a record value of $13.81 billion, bringing Vietnam to the top 10 countries having the largest remittances in the world WB), in my opinion, that figure maybe not realistic. In fact, remittances are difficult to reach this level, therefore, foreign currency demand will surely put pressure”, said Hieu.
Statistics of the State Bank show that remittances to Vietnam in 2017 hit more than $10 billion. The foreign capital flow via securities investment channel from South Korea, Japan to Vietnam was still rather good. However, according to experts, the hot growth of the stock market over the last period may still bring about certain risks, especially when the US stock market and the world’s stock markets also go up and down.
On March 13, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of dong against US dollar at 22,450 dong (down 11 dong). The reference exchange rate at the State Bank Stock Exchange remained unchanged at 22,700 dong for buying price and increased five dong to 23,115 dong for selling price.
