That is the comment given by analysts from Saigon Securities Incorporation (SSI) Retail Research.
In the last week of 2018 and early 2019, the dong/US dollar exchange rate continued to see reverse fluctuations between the management of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) with commercial banks and the free market.
Specifically, the central reference rate continuously increased. After rising by up to 40 dong per US dollar in the last week of 2018, it continued to go up to 22,829 dong as of January 7th, a total increase of more than 1.8 percent compared to the beginning of 2018.
However, the exchange rates at banks and on the free market continuously declined. The free exchange rate as of January 7th was only around 23,200 23,230 dong per US dollar, while it was around 23,160 23,250 dong per US dollar at banks.
On January 8th, while the SBV slightly lowered the central exchange rate by two dong to 22,827 dong per US dollars, banks raised the rates by five to 10 dong per US dollar, the first increase in two weeks. Commercial Joint Stock Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) the bank that sees the largest US dollar trading is listing the exchange rate at 23,165 23,255 dong per US dollar.
Another notable development on the foreign exchange market is that on the first trading day of 2019, the SBV announced to raise the US dollar buying rate to 23,200 dong per US dollar, up by 500 dong compared to the buying rate which was maintained throughout 2018. The selling rate was slightly higher at 23,460 dong per share, narrowing the buying-selling rates from 760 dong to 260 dong per US dollar.
According to the SSI Research and Investment Advisory Department, the increase of buying rate by 2.2 percent is a signal showing that the SBV is trying to create a new price level for the US dollar, while helping the SBV to increase foreign exchange reserves during the peak period of remittances before the Lunar New Year.
SSI’s analysts also forecasted that the exchange rate in January is likely to fluctuate around 23,200 dong per US dollar.
