The National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC) has released the report on financial and economic situation in the first two months of 2018.
Accordingly, by the end of February 2018, the central reference rate increased by 0.13 percent compared to late 2017. The exchange rates of commercial banks increased by about 0.12 percent, and rates on the free market increased by about 22 percent. The reason of the slight exchange rate rise was the recovery of the US dollar (USD) in February.
The NFSC forecasted that the USD/VND exchange rate in 2018 will increase slightly by about 1.5-2 percent and continue to create competitive advantage for exports. In particular, the exchange rate will continue to be supported by the surplus trade balance (by February 15th 2018, the trade surplus was 1.6 billion USD compared to the beginning of the year). The USD is forecasted to continue depreciate, and the outlook for Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) in Vietnam through the stock market is very positive.
Regarding the exchange rate, earlier in a statement in February 2018, Dr Tran Hoang Ngan, member of the economic advisory group of the prime minister, said that the biggest challenge in 2018 is the exchange rate and interest rates. According to Dr Ngan, the exchange rate and interest rate policies of strong currencies in the world are likely to be adjusted by governments. However, he remains confident that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) have sufficient experience to continue being successful with the goal of stabilising macro economy, controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
