Saigon Securities Incorporation Research centre (SSI Research) has released the report estimating profits in the first quarter (Q1) 2020 of 26 businesses, including banks.
The report showed that analysts are still optimistic about banks’ results when they believe that banks’ profits will continue to be stable, completely different from many other industries.
Specifically, SSI Research estimated that the pre-tax profit of Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ACB, HNX: ACB) was about 1.8 trillion dong, up by five percent compared to the same period of 2019. The bank’s credit growth was slightly higher than the overall growth of the entire system, reaching 1.1 percent compared to the beginning of the year. The credit risk provisioning cost was estimated to be higher than Q1 2019.
For HCM City Development Commercial Joint Stock Bank (HDBank, HOSE: HDB), the credit growth rate of the parent bank and HDSaison in Q1 was estimated at about six percent compared to the same period of 2019. The bad debt ratio is about 1.1 percent (compared to the 0.98 percent in the end of 2019) at the parent bank, while HDSaison’s bad debt ratio moved sideways.
The pre-tax profit of Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank (TPBank, HOSE: TPB) was forecasted to be about one trillion dong, up by 17.3 percent compared to the same period of 2019, thanks to the credit growth and mobilisation growth of respectively nine and six percent compared to the beginning of the year. The bank’s credit growth increased mainly thanks to the corporate bonds and loans to large businesses. The ratio of bad debts of TPBank increased to 1.8 percent while the Net Interest Margin (NIM) slightly fell to four percent.
For Commercial Joint Stock Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank), the Q1 pre-tax profit was estimated at 6.1 trillion dong, up by three percent thanks to the respectively three percent and two percent growth rates of credit growth and mobilised capital. The bank raised the provisioning costs significantly in the quarter to be well prepared for the increase of bad debts in the coming quarters.
According to SSI Research, the pre-tax profit of Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VIB, UPCOM: VIB) was estimated at more than one trillion dong, equivalent to a 30 percent rise compared to the same period of 2019.
Analysts estimated that Vietnam Prosperity Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VPBank, HOSE: VPB) can achieve a double-digit growth in Q1 2020 because it maintained good credit growth of six percent in the quarter and recorded a part of profit from its bond portfolio in the first two months of 2020.
In the recent letter sent to shareholders, general director of VPBank Nguyen Duc Vinh also partly revealed the bank’s Q1 business results when saying that “despite being initially affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, the bank still recorded positive results in the first quarter in terms of credit growth, revenue and consolidated profit.:
For Commercial Joint Stock Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), SSI Research estimated the bank’s Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) to be 7.4 trillion dong, down by four percent compared to the same period of 2019 due to the decrease of respectively one percent and 0.8 percent in credit growth and mobilisation. The bank’s pre-tax profit was estimated at 1.850 trillion dong, down by 28.6 percent compared to the same period of 2019 due to the sharp rise of provisioning costs.
The pre-tax profit of Commercial Joint Stock Bank for Industry and Trade of Vietnam (VietinBank, HOSE: CTG) was forecasted at about 3.1 trillion dong, down by 1.7 percent over the same period of last year, based on the decline in credit and mobilisation growth of respectively 1.2 percent and 1.5 percent compared to the beginning of the year. The bank has significantly raised its provisioning expenses in the quarter to well prepare for the bad debt increase in the next quarter.
Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBBank) increased credit risk provisions in Q1 to create a capital buffer for the coming quarters, even when its bad debts have not increased. Therefore, the bank’s provisioning costs may sharply rise by 30-35%, causing the pre-tax profit to be almost unchanged or slightly fall (by 0.5 to 0.7 percent over the same period of last year).
